A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
